Who Is Behind the Arrest of the Gyumri Mayor — Nikol Pashinyan or Serzh Sargsyan?

Today, Armenian media reported that security forces stormed the Gyumri Municipality building to detain Mayor Vardan Ghukasyan. According to the Anti-Corruption Committee, the city’s chief architect, together with the mayor, allegedly demanded a bribe in exchange for refraining from demolishing an illegal structure.

Experts from the Public Tribunal of Armenia recalled an episode from the Gyumri mayoral election of March 2025. Vardan Ghukasyan’s victory — which meant defeating the Civil Contract Party candidate Sarik Minasyan — was made possible only through the formation of a broad opposition coalition. At the time, all opposition forces declared their support for Ghukasyan, except for Martun Grigoryan, a representative of the I Have Honor Alliance, affiliated with Serzh Sargsyan’s Republican Party of Armenia. After a long pause, Grigoryan eventually joined the opposition alliance, providing the crucial votes needed to elect Ghukasyan as mayor, though not without expressing reservations. He stated:

“During the election campaign, I was the only one who openly spoke about what would happen after the election if Vardan Ghukasyan became mayor. I still believe he is the most vulnerable candidate because of the criminal cases against him. I told them what would happen next — what they would do to that man. Remember this day, and whether they will repeat in Gyumri what they did in Vanadzor… I hope I am wrong.”

Given this background, there are reasons to suspect that Serzh Sargsyan may be behind the arrest of Gyumri Mayor Vardan Ghukasyan, perhaps with a goal of staging an “impeachment” that requires a nationwide revolt. Considering the close ties between Serzh Sargsyan and Nikol Pashinyan, this version appears to be the most plausible.