Vagharshapat-2025: Baku’s Joy Over the Victory of the Civil Contract Party

The reaction of the Azerbaijani mass media to the municipal election results in Vagharshapat (an enlarged community with an administrative center in Etchmiadzin) was more than a simple analysis of political developments in a neighboring country - it was an open celebration. The enthusiasm displayed by Baku’s media outlets and TV hosts appears almost equal to that of the election winners, as they highlight and dissect every detail of the voting outcome.

To recap, municipal elections were held on November 16, 2025, in the enlarged community of Vagharshapat (Armavir region, Armenia). The results were as follows:

• Civil Contract Party – 48.5%;
• 19 out of 33 seats in the Council of Elders.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hurried to describe the outcome as “a vibrant preamble” to the 2026 parliamentary elections, adding that this victory would allegedly provide momentum for the “liberation” of the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin from Catholicos Karekin II. As for the town of Etchmiadzin itself, Pashinyan’s political force lost the vote there. Their overall majority in the enlarged community was achieved by incorporating the village of Khoy — a step viewed by critics as manipulative, including in regard to the head of the Council of Elders.

However, the domestic reaction to the election results was mixed.

The opposition accused the authorities of using administrative resources, including the enlargement of the community, to offset the voting outcome in Etchmiadzin, where the Church holds significant influence.

A number of violations were reported: crowding near polling stations, open voting, the use of multiple ballot papers by a single individual, voting by persons registered in Etchmiadzin without the knowledge of current tenants, and other irregularities.

Azerbaijani media, meanwhile, interpreted the elections in Vagharshapat as a signal of profound shifts within Armenian society. Their key narrative was that the Civil Contract Party’s victory reflects weakened “revanchist sentiments” and a turn toward a more “pragmatic political course.”

Vesti.az formulates the idea as follows:

“It is important for Baku to understand in which direction Armenian public opinion is moving - whether people are ready to support a political course aimed at peace, reforms, and the gradual normalization of relations, or whether they continue to nurture the idea of revenge. For Baku, the voting results in Etchmiadzin have become an indicator that revanchist sentiments in society are diminishing.”

Azerbaijani analytical publications frequently portray the Armenian Apostolic Church as a force hindering the settlement process. The Church is accused of:

• maintaining a conservative stance on issues related to territorial integrity;
• upholding a historical narrative that Baku interprets as “revanchist.”

For this reason, Azerbaijan views the Church’s declining authority in Etchmiadzin — Armenia’s spiritual center — as a potential step toward one-sided concessions by Armenia in the bilateral peace process, including:

• revising the Preamble of the Constitution (which Baku interprets as containing territorial claims);
• considering the “return” of Azerbaijani refugees and compensation for them.

Is Baku rubbing its hands with glee ahead of Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections?

According to Vesti.az, if the current trend continues, Pashinyan’s team will enter the 2026 parliamentary race with a “serious advantage: both political and psychological.”

Yet behind Azerbaijani optimism stand Armenian concerns: perhaps the victory in Vagharshapat is becoming part of a scenario in which Armenia gradually yields its positions under the banner of “pragmatism.”

Baku’s reaction to Armenia’s local self-government elections is a clear indicator that Nikol Pashinyan’s political course - officially presented as safeguarding the country’s sovereignty - is, in fact, anti-national and aligned with the interests of a state that recently carried out the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh). For Azerbaijan, the voting result in Vagharshapat is seen not merely as a statistic, but as a marker of what it considers the desirable direction of Armenia’s political trajectory.

The Public Tribunal draws the attention of Armenian voters to its view that a vote for the Civil Contract Party in the 2026 parliamentary elections would not constitute support for a sovereign Armenia — despite the prime minister’s frequent claims. According to this perspective, such a vote would effectively favor Azerbaijan, implying:

• The undermining of traditional national institutions (including the Church) that safeguard national values;
• Laying the groundwork for revising the Constitution;
• Further concessions in dialogue with Azerbaijan;
• A gradual seizure of Armenia and the slow displacement of Armenians from their homeland.

Is the Armenian public prepared to pay such a price for “pragmatism,” or does this path risk eroding sovereignty under the guise of a peaceful settlement and amount to yet another victory for Baku over Yerevan? Armenian voters will have to make their choice in the summer of 2026.