Aram Orbelyan on Post-Election Armenia: Independence Declaration, TRIPP, TPP, and Impeachment Prospects
Aram Orbelyan, a well-known lawyer and expert in constitutional and corporate law, in his recent interview thoroughly analyzed the ongoing processes in Armenia, both as a professional and as a citizen of the country.
Among other issues, he addressed the activities of the authorities, constitutional amendments, the functioning of state institutions, and the upcoming post-election developments.
The most resonating moment was the recent statements by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the new constitution, which, according to Orbelyan, will not contain the Independence Declaration. Orbelyan called it senseless discussing the actions of Pashinyan, who “seized the prime minister’s post,” adding that any changes in the Constitution should be widely discussed with the people following June 7. He is sure that Pashinyan will not be re-elected, as all social surveys point to low support for the authorities.
In this context, Orbelyan highlighted the possibility of impeachment and the formation of a post-election coalition.
“I have an inner conviction that he should not be re-elected. At present, all existing social surveys indicate that he will not be re-elected, and I recommend that all political forces, citizens, business associations, and stakeholders discuss the post-election agenda, including potential coalitions.”
According to Orbelyan, at least four or five major political forces are seeking a significant role after the elections, and all are discussing possible coalitions, as well as solutions to key economic, social, and legal issues. These include tax policy, the social and healthcare sectors, property regulation, and the management of public assets.
The lawyer paid particular attention to the constitutional structure of the state and the functioning of government institutions. He warned that ongoing efforts to amend the Constitution risk undermining stability and legal predictability. In his view, any interference with the Constitution must be justified and driven by state interests, not external pressure, including from Azerbaijan.
Orbelyan cited several examples, including the management of “TPP” JSC, the actions of the Constitutional Court, and the licensing law, to illustrate how recent changes have enabled government bodies and temporary administrators to make decisions without effective oversight. He warned that this creates a dangerous precedent: “If this is constitutionally acceptable, it means that the Constitution protects no one.”
Regarding international issues, Orbelyan expressed cautious support for investment projects, including TRIPP, while emphasizing the need for transparency and safeguards against any limitations on the country’s sovereignty. He also pointed to both historical and current border-related challenges, including the positions of Turkey and Azerbaijan regarding Armenia’s territory and transport corridors.
In the economic sphere, Orbelyan highlighted the significant growth of state liabilities and stressed the need for more rational management of the budget, capital investments, and infrastructure projects. He criticized the current practice of underfunding capital expenditures alongside increasing social spending, warning that this poses risks to long-term economic stability.
In conclusion, Orbelyan outlined the key challenges facing Armenia today: restoring legal predictability, ensuring constitutional stability, maintaining transparent management of public assets, and forming a balanced post-election coalition — with the possibility of impeachment — to uphold democratic standards.
