The news of Israel\u2019s attack on Tehran quickly ceased to be just another report from the Middle East. The world was once again reminded of a disturbing, consistent pattern: a local military operation that could trigger large-scale geopolitical shifts. The new wave of tensions in the Middle East is destined to affect both the region itself and the South Caucasus, which is becoming increasingly intertwined with this volatile area.<\/p>\n
In an interview with 168TV, political expert Sergey Markedonov suggested that the situation should be viewed through a broader historical lens, extending well beyond today\u2019s headlines.<\/p>\n
According to Markedonov, the current escalation is part of a long-standing attempt to revise the balance of power around Iran \u2014 a challenge that has long occupied America\u2019s foreign policy.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cClosing the Iranian issue means paying the historical bill that the Americans have been carrying since the 1979 revolution,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
The Islamic Revolution in 1979 indeed marked a turning point. The loss of a key ally in the Middle East was perceived by Washington as a significant strategic defeat. Since then, efforts to weaken Iran \u2014 either through sanctions or the threat of military action \u2014 have been recurrent. However, it\u2019s crucial to understand that even if there is a regime change in Tehran, the role of Iran as a state with ancient history and the ability to adapt will remain substantial.<\/p>\n
The South Caucasus In the Turbulence Zone<\/h1>\n
The developments around Iran are directly impacting the South Caucasus, as the region becomes engulfed in the Middle Eastern confrontations involving Turkey, Israel, the West, and regional powers.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cThe Caucasus is not only undergoing Westernization but also Easternization \u2014 the Middle Eastern conflicts are already affecting it directly,\u201d Markedonov observed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Azerbaijan\u2019s military-political strengthening has been facilitated by the active support of Turkey and Israel. Armenia, for its part, had long viewed Iran as a potential counterbalance. Yet the reality has shown the limited nature of such calculations \u2014 Tehran\u2019s primary resources and attention are focused on defending its position in the Middle East. As the conflict expands, Iran\u2019s ability to engage in the Caucasus will only continue to diminish.<\/p>\n
Dangerous Illusion: Can Stability Be Brought from Outside?<\/h1>\n
In the West, discussions often revolve around scenarios of internal destabilization within Iran, betting on social discontent. Markedonov recalls a fundamental rule of international politics:<\/p>\n
\n\u201cWhen people are discontented with their government, that\u2019s one thing. When happiness is imposed from outside at the point of bayonets, people unite around the national flag.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Recent history confirms that external pressure often leads to national consolidation, even in the face of deep internal divisions. Moreover, if the conflict transitions to a ground invasion, it could lead to a large-scale humanitarian crisis, including refugee flows, which would inevitably affect the Caucasian countries bordering Iran.<\/p>\n
When the Neighbor\u2019s House is on Fire<\/h1>\n
The South Caucasus is not only politically linked to Iran but geographically as well. The shared border makes the region highly sensitive to any shocks to the south.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cIf the neighbor\u2019s house is on fire, one can close the windows and doors, but still needs to watch out for the squalls,\u201d Markedonov remarked.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Even a limited expansion of the conflict could alter economic routes, energy flows, and the military-political security architecture of the region. It would trigger the activation of all the major players \u2014 Turkey, Israel, the U.S., the EU, and Russia \u2014 and each would aim to strengthen its position.<\/p>\n
Pragmatism Over Illusions<\/h1>\n
Markedonov emphasized the role of external forces in the post-Soviet space, reminding that international politics operates under strict pragmatic rules:<\/p>\n
\n\u201cPolitics has no altruism.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Any support is always driven by strategic expectations. The strengthening of one superpower inevitably means the weakening of another. Inviting external actors to resolve domestic issues can drastically alter the balance of sovereign decisions.<\/p>\n
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