A catastrophe never happens overnight. It does not strike like sudden thunder. It accumulates through hundreds and thousands of small decisions that \u2014 at the moment they are made \u2014 seem \u201crational,\u201d \u201cforced,\u201d and \u201cinevitable.\u201d<\/p>\n
One reform is postponed.
One document is shelved.
One warning is ignored.<\/p>\n
Step by step, a country that once had a strategy, an army, allies, and a historic window of opportunity leads itself to the edge of the abyss.<\/p>\n
This analysis draws on observations by political scientist Artur Khachikyan, who examines national catastrophe not as abstract geopolitics, but as the result of a sequence of concrete decisions.<\/p>\n
In 2018, under the leadership of Defense Minister Vigen Sargsyan, a seven-year modernization program for Armenia\u2019s Armed Forces (2018\u20132024) was developed.<\/p>\n
The program envisioned:<\/p>\n
Think tanks, including the Jamestown Foundation, viewed the program as the foundation of an \u201cActive Denial System\u201d capable of inflicting disproportionate damage on a potential adversary.<\/p>\n
Armenia had a plan, resources, and time. After May 2018, however, the program was effectively frozen.<\/p>\n
In 2019, Armenia ordered four Su-30SM multirole fighter aircraft.<\/p>\n
The jets were delivered in 2020. However, missiles for them were not purchased.<\/p>\n
Official statements referred to their \u201ccombat use,\u201d but it later emerged that the necessary ammunition had not been acquired.<\/p>\n
According to SIPRI, Armenia\u2019s military spending in 2019 amounted to approximately $635 million, with defense expenditures reaching about 4.9% of GDP.<\/p>\n
Funding was available, but the link between strategic planning and procurement proved broken.<\/p>\n
Reports by Transparency International described Armenia\u2019s defense sector as an area of high corruption risk, highlighting systemic vulnerabilities in planning and oversight.<\/p>\n
After the April 2016 war, it became clear that unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were essential. Nevertheless, by 2020, no systemic investments had been made in attack drones, electronic warfare systems, or anti-drone defenses.<\/p>\n
According to public statements, in the summer of 2020, the Chief of the General Staff, Onik Gasparyan, warned of possible direct involvement by Turkey in the conflict. Similar signals reportedly came from security services.<\/p>\n
Political decisions, however, remained unchanged.<\/p>\n
On August 5, 2019, in Stepanakert, Nikol Pashinyan declared:<\/p>\n
\n\u201cArtsakh is Armenia, full stop.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
In the international arena, this formulation was perceived as a departure from the Madrid Principles. The negotiation process was effectively frozen.<\/p>\n
On October 19, 2020, according to published information, a ceasefire proposal was presented that would have left Shushi under Armenian control. The proposal was rejected.\nThree weeks later, an agreement was signed on significantly less favorable terms.<\/p>\n
Shushi As A Turning Point<\/h2>\n
Shushi was a strategic height under the control of Stepanakert. Azerbaijani special forces bypassed the main defensive directions and advanced through areas considered impassable.<\/p>\n
The defense suffered from the absence of unified command, incomplete mobilization, and insufficient reserves. The city fell \u2014 a turning point in the war.<\/p>\n
The Post-War Narrative<\/h2>\n
After the defeat, political rhetoric shifted. The focus moved from the language of self-determination to what was described as \u201clowering sights.\u201d<\/p>\n
The prime minister stated:<\/p>\n
\n\u201cWe did not lose Nagorno-Karabakh \u2014 we gained the Republic of Armenia.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Analysts interpreted this as an attempt to politically reframe defeat for the sake of survival.<\/p>\n
In 2018, his approval rating stood at approximately 70 percent. Within a few years, it declined significantly.<\/p>\n
According to Artur Khachikyan, catastrophe is the result of a chain of decisions:<\/h2>\n
Freezing the modernization program;<\/p>\n
\n
- Expensive procurements that did not enhance combat capability;<\/li>\n
- Ignoring intelligence warnings;<\/li>\n
- Ignoring intelligence warnings;<\/li>\n
- Failure to conduct full mobilization;<\/li>\n
- Rejecting ceasefire proposals;<\/li>\n
- Politically reframing the defeat.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Each decision, taken in isolation, may have appeared difficult but defensible. Together, they formed a roadmap to national tragedy.<\/p>\n
Stepanakert was emptied. Shushi came under Azerbaijani control. Tens of thousands were displaced.<\/p>\n